Republicans Aim to Gain Arizona Seats as Sentiments Shift

PHOENIX (Wire Services) December 29, 2009 — For the past two elections, Democrats had Republicans on the run. But 2010 will dawn with Democrats bracing for a likely tough year as they prepare to protect their majorities in the House and Senate.

Even if they hadn't spent the past year struggling to enact President Barack Obama's far-reaching agenda amid a slumping economy and continuing anti-establishment anger from Tea Party activists, Democrats would have faced a tough road in next year's midterm elections. Most presidents see their party's influence in Congress shrink in their first midterm elections, partly because some of the vulnerable members who entered on the president's coattails inevitably cannot stand alone.

In Arizona, swing-district Democratic Reps. Gabrielle Giffords, Ann Kirkpatrick and Harry Mitchell already are feeling the heat as Republican hopefuls line up for the chance to challenge them.

The Democratic Party would like to do more than just retain seats in Arizona, but they could struggle to pick up another seat or two in Congress.

Rep. John Shadegg, R-Ariz., who represents a GOP-leaning district, likely will find himself targeted once more for defeat by national Democrats, although analysts agree Shadegg probably is in good shape after surviving an all-out attack in 2008.

Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., the 2008 GOP presidential nominee, could be in for a bumpy re-election ride should former Rep. J.D. Hayworth, R-Ariz., run against him in the primary. But if McCain survives the primary, most experts believe he has little to worry about from the Democrats.

Whether the GOP can match the success of the 1994 "Republican Revolution," when the party picked up 52 House and eight Senate seats, remains unclear, but party activists point to some encouraging signs.

Obama's poll standings slid in 2009 as he spent massive political capital on his top domestic priority, health-care reform.

His decision this month to send 30,000 additional troops to Afghanistan disappointed some of his liberal base.

And the Democratic routings of the Republicans in 2006 and 2008 were so widespread Democrats now must defend many centrist or even right-leaning districts in a climate characterized by conservative protests and some independent disenchantment with the Obama agenda.

"The Democrats are going to do their best to hold on to control of the House, but clearly there is a lot of anti-Obama talk these days," said Fred Solop, chairman of Northern Arizona University's politics and international-affairs department. "I think the question is how many seats are the Republicans going to pick up."

Republicans on the offensive

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report is forecasting that Republicans nationwide could pick up 20 to 30 House seats. The party needs 41 seats to win back control of the House.

In Arizona, GOP operatives are hoping to take out Mitchell, Giffords and Kirkpatrick, all three of whom cast votes Nov. 7 in favor of the House health-care reform bill championed by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif.

In 2006, Mitchell and Giffords replaced Republican congressmen in GOP-leaning districts. In 2008, Kirkpatrick replaced a Republican congressman in a sprawling rural district where Democrats have a registration advantage but many hold conservative viewpoints on issues such as gun-owner rights. McCain carried all three of their districts over Obama in the 2008 presidential race.

"We're excited about the possibility of taking those seats back," said Alan Philp, the Republican National Committee's political director for the region that includes Arizona. "The environment has become very encouraging for Republicans as Democrats have refused to listen to the American people on the issues of health care, government spending and debt. So there are some excellent opportunities for Republicans in Arizona."

But Andy Stone, Western regional press secretary for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, disputed the GOP-pushed theme that the three are out of touch with constituents.

"Congresswomen Kirkpatrick and Giffords and Congressman Mitchell are strong, independent voices for their districts," Stone said. "They have focused on addressing their constituents' needs by working to create jobs and restore the economy in Arizona over the past year and will continue to do so moving forward."

Mitchell and Kirkpatrick, reflecting the complexities of their districts, have proven to be unpredictable on many of the big votes sought by Pelosi. On June 26, both voted against the controversial House-passed energy-reform and climate-change bill. In April, Mitchell sided with Republicans, voting against Obama's $3.5 trillion budget. Kirkpatrick in June was one of only seven Democrats to oppose sweeping anti-tobacco legislation, citing her opposition to the regulatory and bureaucratic growth she said the bill would bring. Besides supporting the health-care bill, Giffords, Mitchell and Kirkpatrick also voted for the $787 billion economic stimulus bill.

An Arizona Republic analysis of their voting records found Giffords the most likely of the three to vote with the Democrats, with a 92 percent party-line vote. Mitchell votes with his party 81 percent of the time, while Kirkpatrick does so 90 percent. By comparison, liberal Reps. Ed Pastor and Raúl Grijalva, both of whom represent solidly Democratic Arizona districts, vote with their party 99 percent of the time.

David Wasserman, who analyzes House races for the Cook Political Report, suggested the GOP's chances of toppling the Democratic trio depend heavily on whether strong, credible candidates emerge from the party's primaries. Incumbents always enjoy certain advantages, particularly when it comes to raising money.

State Sen. Jonathan Paton, R-Tucson, who is considering a congressional run, would give Giffords a tough fight in the 8th Congressional District, Wasserman said.

"She has framed herself as a centrist Democrat, but her voting record to date has been very supportive of Democratic initiatives, especially on major Democratic agenda items," he said. "So a Republican could seek to frame her as someone who has said one thing in the district and another in Washington. But if there is any Arizona incumbent who could rely on personal appeal and energetic campaign skills, it would be Giffords. And she's a very good fundraiser."

Potential opponents

The races in Kirkpatrick's 1st Congressional District and Mitchell's 5th Congressional District also will come into clearer focus after the primaries.

In Kirkpatrick's case, one of her better-known potential opponents, former state Senate Majority Leader Rusty Bowers, must overcome a perception that he is a carpetbagger, Wasserman said. Bowers formerly represented Mesa, which is outside the district.

Mitchell's district actually is moderating and likely trending toward the Democrats over the long term, but "the question is whether Harry Mitchell can hang on this year," Wasserman said. David Schweikert, a former state legislator from the northeast Valley and the district's unsuccessful 2008 GOP nominee, is among the candidates running in 2010. Former Scottsdale City Councilwoman Susan Bitter Smith also may run.

For his part, Mitchell, a former longtime Tempe mayor and state senator, said he is used to running - and winning - political campaigns in an area perceived as advantageous to Republicans.

"We're getting ready for it," Mitchell said. "I don't take any of these things lightly."

One Arizona district where national Democrats have signaled an intention to go on the offensive is Shadegg's. Wasserman, though, said he is skeptical that Shadegg would be vulnerable in 2010 after he withstood an aggressive Democratic assault in 2008, generally a great year for Democrats and a bad one for Republicans.

Challenging McCain

On the Senate side, McCain is seeking a fifth term. So far, no marquee-name Democrat has emerged to challenge him, with Tucson City Councilman Rodney Glassman the most prominent possible candidate.

Despite topping the GOP's national ticket in 2008, McCain's toughest fight could come in the Republican primary. His opponents already include Minuteman Civil Defense Corps co-founder Chris Simcox and could include Hayworth, the six-term congressman upset by Mitchell in 2006.

Hayworth, now an afternoon conservative radio-talk-show host on Phoenix radio station KFYI, is considering a run. A recent statewide poll found him in a virtual tie with McCain.

"No matter who runs, I always take every race seriously. I always work hard," McCain said. "Since the end of my presidential campaign, as I have traveled extensively in the state, I have been very touched by the warmth of the reception I have gotten."